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It is not clear is if Iran’s time is over. We need a few propositions put forth that we have already heard.
Current policy will not lead the Iranians to abandon their program. If we continue doing what we are doing, Iran will be a nuclear state.
Iran with nuclear weapons will not be so easily deterred and detained. One is involved in deterrence in a psychological game. In given what we’ve heard from Ahmadinejad, it is not clear if we can expect a replay of that psychological game. In possession of nuclear weapons, Iran is capable of using their terrorist networks to enable damage.
At some point, we have to begin to face the question where is the point of no return? The issue is one of timing and intelligence. You can’t afford to wait for all the evidence. If there has been a lesson learned recently, as far as the U.S. is concerned, there is a possibility of waiting too long to take action. This is referring to the length of time we waited watching Osama bin Laden organize himself and al-Qaeda to act in terror. In retrospect, had we dealt with al-Qaeda, September 11th may not have happened. Some Americans are concerned that we should not to wait too long or it will be too late.
When we think about options, and we think about the timing of those options- I am not convinced that we have a lot of time. It is amazing that we do not have a serious political solution to Iran already. The failure until now to support any new regime is shocking. There are millions of Iranians who want to see regime change but are powerless. They are getting no help from the outside world. If we do nothing to support the internal opposition, nothing will happen in changing the regime. We had opportunities to encourage regime change in Iraq, but we wound up only with military options. If we continue on our course of action, we will be left again only with military options.
We need a serious effort to work with the internal opposition. We have seen the extraordinary ability to change regime internally. The results from political action have been impressive, less costly and less dangerous. If we fail to energize the opposition through overt and covert means and we continue on our current path, the question is ‘who will act decisively and what will they achieve?’ Militarily, we could destroy the facilities with minimal collateral damage using aircraft missiles. Is that the right option?
If the Israeli government comes to the conclusion that it has no choice but to take action, the reaction of the U.S. will be the belief in the vitality that this action must succeed, even if the U.S. needs to act with Israel in the current American administration. |