Paul Bracken divided the nuclear age to two ages. In my opinion we are facing of three ages. I would like to describe the tree past ages and the dangers forthcoming by the fourth age.

The first nuclear age (1945-1967): I describe this age as time of learning and surviving. This age is characterized by the development of the nuclear race and nuclear crisis. During this age five nuclear powers were formed, the world developed a new theory of deterrence and mutual assured destruction (MAD) and gradually MAD tries to deter other countries from going in this direction. There was an effort to develop a norm of preventing nuclear proliferation.  After Cuba the world tried to stabilize and create agreements for partial prohibition of nuclear weapons.

The second nuclear age (1968-1989): there is a formalization of a new treaty trying to prevent the world from becoming more “nuclear”. It was stated that until 1967, any state that acquired nuclear capability will be limited to the states that had already obtained it and no additional states will acquire nuclear capabilities. This age is characterized by hope, its common ground being managing the stability and making all inclusive arrangements for arms control. In this age we see both global arrangements and arrangements between the superpowers. The success in containing most of the countries was impressive. There were three states on the edge of nuclear capability that were outside the NPT (India, Pakistan and Israel), and three states that accepted the Treaty but kept the nuclear option should it be needed (Egypt and Japan). There were attempts to challenge this order, but these were treated without turmoil. An interesting aspect was the decline of the initial enthusiasm about intercontinental missiles (ICBMs).

The third age (1989 – present): In my opinion, it will last for three to four more years, and will end in 2011. The default is that in 2011 a fourth nuclear age will start. The characteristics of the third age are euphoria and subsequently despair from the nuclear order. It started with signs of success (South-Africa disarmed its nuclear weapons, and perhaps the greatest event was the dismemberment of the USSR). These successes were blurring the fact that both India and Pakistan were running ahead and shortly afterwards decided to perform nuclear testing; North Korea keeps proceeding and cancels its agreement with the US; Libya had been trying to develop nuclear capability, and it is clear that the seeds of the problems that bloom today were already sown. At the same time the arms control agreements enter an ice-age. The treaty for global ban of nuclear tests was indeed signed, but not ratified, and therefore was not in effect.

The sense that accompanies this age is that the nuclear balance is decaying, while the challenges from states like North Korea seem to be difficult to deter. It is not surprising to see increasing interest in anti-missile defense, and at the same time we see that nuclear technology is widespread. There is a real interest of terrorist groups in nuclear technology. These are the seeds of calamity.

I will conclude with a word about the fourth age. My hesitation is: can we really look nostalgically upon nuclear stability, for when we look back on the Cuban Missile Crisis, history tells otherwise. Various factors might lead to instability : the continuation of the crisis in Pakistan and even its escalation with a potential for a nuclear war between Pakistan and India; the export of nuclear technology from North Korea; the appearance of nuclear Iran; the reappearance of nuclear energy as an alternative option without being accompanied by weapons control arrangements to prevent this technology from becoming an instrument of nuclear threat; and of course the continuing interest of terrorists in nuclear technology.

The calamity is not unavoidable. A new nuclear order may appear safer. For this a few things need to be dealt with: NPT, the inspection arrangements of IAEA, and elements that can deal with nuclear energy.