Maj. Gen. (res.), Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel, Head, Security Studies Program, Tel Aviv University

 

 

 What should the world do when facing a nuclear Iran? I will divide the different school of thought according to a logical division. There is a group which claims that nothing needs to be done. This group claims we can live with a nuclear Iran. In order to confront this group, we must explain that once we are dealing with Iran, this is not the case.

On the other hand, we are facing a second group which advocates no action, claiming Iran will never reach the point of possessing nuclear capabilities. Once you realize Iran will posses nuclear capabilities, you face a third group, which argues that nothing needs to be done because a nuclear Iran is, in fact, inevitable. We can only control the timing and slow it down. There is a fourth group, which claims we should avoid taking action, as it is anxious about the Iranian response. Most of these claims represent a mixed strategy of suppression and denial.

There are those who claim a nuclear Iran will create a mutual balance of deterrence – under the notion of “they will never dare to use these capabilities”. Even if Iran will never use a nuclear bomb, it’s not going to be easy. Under a nuclear umbrella, they will become more aggressive. In addition, this will lead to a proliferation within the Arab world. This is, indeed, a new Middle East in which we are not only facing two countries who deter one another, but a far worse scenario.
In addition we must take into consideration that even if a fundamentalist such as Ahmadinejad will avoid the use nuclear power, and even if an extremist such as Ahmadinejad will not want to risk nuclear war, he actually has other ways of using nuclear capabilities, such as trafficking via a third party. Similar methods were used by Hezbollah. Only this time, we are dealing with unconventional capabilities.

This fanatic regime with nuclear capability and its direct connection to Allah accompanied by an official policy of eliminating the mere existence of the State of Israel.  It is a real threat. I believe we should use everything in our ability to prevent a nuclear Iran.

There are those who argue we have nothing to worry about, as one way or another, this threat will be removed. They claim that with or without external intervention, Iran is headed towards an internal revolution. They also argue that there are those within Iran who criticize its nuclear program. Until a short while ago, there were also those who argued that Iran does not aim for nuclear capabilities. Today we can all agree these claims are false.

Western nations possess the ability to threaten Iran and make it choose a different path. I truly believe that without Western intervention, Iran will possess nuclear power within a few years.

There are those who claim that we do not possess the ability to influence Iran. Political pressure is ineffective, while military pressure is unattainable due to a lack of intelligence or distant and unknown locations. This is true to some extent, but in fact, the Western world possesses enough knowledge to delay the Iranian nuclear project. Delay is extremely important: see the Iraqi case for clear prove.

For those who claim that Iran will act against Israel regardless, I would suggest reconsidering the cost-benefit analysis of an Iranian response. The costs are an extremely intense terrorism. Weighing this against a nuclear Middle East, we do not have any alternative besides military action.

I agree with those who argue that a military option is in fact the last we resort. It is still important to remember that time is running out. Options we once had are gone. Every moment counts in this battle.

Our minimal task is to prepare all options, including the military one.