Dr. David Wurmser

 

 

On the idea of American pressure, I do not think the president would ask Israel to do something it really did not want to do. Everybody here is focused on the ramifications of the 2006 war. Still, I have not heard its impact on the US being discussed.  At the outset of the war, the president urged restraint on both sides. As the war continued, it became clear that this was a regionally important strategic event. This was a war between the Hezbollah and Israel, Syria and Israel, and Iran and Israel. It became our interest that Israel should not emerge from the war having lost. Internationally, we protected Israel from a premature ceasefire, but we also urged Israel not to do certain things.  We wondered if it would have been in Israel's interests to expand the war somewhat, and the answer that I received from Israelis was that they never got a green light from the US. Do Israelis think that had the war expanded, we would have abandoned them? The problem here is not interests, but communications. 

 

Following September 11th, it was clear to the administration that this nation was at war. We understood that our enemy was not just Al-Qaeda. We also understood that certain political conditions in the Middle East led to conditions that gave rise to Al-Qaeda. There is an escalating conflict against the West in the region.  The core problem for us was not the Arab-Israeli conflict, so the peace process was put in line with the larger foreign policies that we were working towards in the Middle East.  Deep under that, Israel was considered as part of the West. As such a close ally of Israel, if we would not stand with them when they needed help, we would have had a hard time convincing others that we would help them.

 

When I visited European capitals in 2003 to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue, there was a feeling that the US wanted to go to the UN with the issue, but the Europeans wanted to know where the US was going to go with it. The Europeans were worried that we would take the same steps that we took in Iraq.  

 

Now, there is a shift on a broad level for several reasons. The terrorist attacks in London affected European thinking. It was no longer viewed as an American problem, but also as a European problem.  Another factor in the shift was the cartoon wars, when the Danish paper published the cartoon of Mohammed. The Europeans were shocked at the intensity of the reaction.

 

A second shift occurred in Iraq. Iraq is, was, and will remain the highest priority of this administration. Iraq is becoming much more of a good news story. I do not think it is due to the surge. I think it is due to internal politics in key areas. The key tribes (Sunni tribes) felt Syria was an agent of Iran. The Sunni tribes have Shiite sub-tribes, and until last year the Sunnis felt that we were in Iraq to put the Shiites in power. Since leadership is so closely tied to protection, they saw there was a real danger from Syria and Iran. Iraq is now moving in the right direction.